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Who we are actually selling to.

Built from StudioHawk's own sales calls rather than from a whiteboard. The messaging framework is Jeremy's Messaging Mastery SOP: Circumstances, Problems, Outcomes, plus Conditions and Amplifiers. The evidence is all 222 transcripts: 175 companies, 448,355 words of prospect speech, parsed line by line so the counts below are shares of calls rather than impressions. Every quote is a real prospect, in their own words, on a real call.

222 transcripts, all of them175 companies448,355 prospect wordsSplit by deal stageCPO frameworkInternal only
What this is built on. Every one of the 222 available transcripts, 175 distinct companies, 448,355 words of prospect-only speech, parsed line by line and joined to the calls index so each call carries its deal stage. Percentages are the share of calls in which the prospect themselves raised a theme, counted once per call. Three reps: Justin Lee 94, Sam Smith 80, Theodore Moudakis 48.

Read this before you use any number on this page. I built this twice before, on ten calls and then on forty-one, and both samples were biased and both sets of numbers were too high, by roughly 1.5x to 2x. I had picked the longest, most engaged, furthest-progressed conversations, which is exactly the wrong way to measure how common something is. The full-corpus figures below are materially lower and they are the ones to use. Two specific retractions: I told you 71% of prospects raise AI search (it is 40%), and I told you unexplained traffic loss was "the most common story in the dataset" (it is 1%; the pattern that produced that number was catching people saying "I don't know why" about calendar invites).

What the full corpus adds that no sample could. The index records the deal stage at the time of each call, so themes can be compared between 110 Discovery-stage conversations and 77 Proposal-stage ones. That comparison is the most useful thing here and it is explained under the table.

Handle this page as internal. The export README says this data stays inside StudioHawk. This page is unlisted on StudioHawk infrastructure and contains no recording links.
The numbers, all 222 calls

What they raise, and when they raise it.

Share of calls in which the buyer, not the rep, brought the theme up. DISC is the 110 conversations recorded at Discovery stage, PROP the 77 recorded at Proposal or Pitch. Lift is the difference. A positive lift means the theme is still being talked about when money is on the table; a negative lift means it is an early-conversation topic that fades.

What the prospect raisesAllDiscPropLiftRead
Has or had an SEO agency52%57%48%-9You are a replacement, not a first purchase.
AI search or LLMs, raised by them40%50%26%-24The most important row. See below.
Wants ongoing, not a project40%46%32%-14Asked early, settled early.
Site migrated, rebuilt or re-themed32%31%40%+9The strongest positive lift. Still live at proposal.
More than one person on the call34%32%39%+7Gets more crowded as it gets real.
Hard commercial deadline18%18%25%+6Real urgency, never manufactured.
Explicitly comparing agencies15%28%17%-11The shortlist is an early-stage behaviour.
A competitor overtaking them12%13%12%-1Minority trigger. Do not build the bank on it.
Explicit agency dissatisfaction8%8%8%0Do not attack the incumbent. Confirmed at full scale.
Says outright they lack SEO expertise7%6%9%+3Most will never admit it. Do not require them to.
Wants implementation done for them7%6%5%-1Smaller than assumed.
Non-branded is the gap6%5%9%+4Rises when the numbers get examined.
Content is the bottleneck5%6%5%-1I previously said 80%. It is 5%.
Found StudioHawk via content or search5%7%3%-5Under-counted: most never say how they found you.
Organic dropped, cannot explain why1%2%4%+2Rare as stated. Vivid when it happens.

The finding: AI search wins the click, migration wins the deal.

Half of Discovery conversations mention AI search. Barely a quarter of Proposal conversations do. It falls by 24 points, the largest move on the table. Meanwhile migration goes the other way, from 31% to 40%, and it is the only substantial theme that rises.

The honest caveat first: this compares conversations at two different moments, not winners against losers. A topic can fade simply because it was asked and answered. I do not have closed-won data, so nobody should call this causation.

But the messaging implication holds either way. AI search is what gets them on the call. It is not what they are still talking about when they are deciding. So put it in the cold ads, where it is doing real work, and stop building the VSL and the proposal around it, where the buyer has already moved on to whether their own site is broken and who is going to fix it. That is a cleaner split than the one I gave you before, which was to stop selling the category everywhere. Wrong: sell it at the top, drop it lower down.

The second finding: nobody is unhappy enough to slag off their agency.

52% have or had an agency. 8% criticise them, and it does not move between stages. This is now measured across 222 calls rather than inferred from ten, and it is the single most useful constraint on the creative: an ad built on "your agency is failing you" is talking to eight percent of the market and insulting the person who hired them, who is on the call 34% of the time.

The ads that fit this reality are the ones that treat the incumbent as a fact rather than an enemy: reason 41 frames the gap structurally, and reason 42 invites the agency to the audit.

Who is actually on the call

Mostly not the owner.

Worth measuring rather than assuming, because it decides who every script is written for. Two independent tests across 220 transcripts, neither depending on the other.

TestResultRead
Self-stated titles
sentences where someone says what they themselves do
Marketing-side 22, owner-side 8Roughly 2.75 to 1 toward marketing.
Is the owner the person talking?
needs no title: does the speaker call the owner "our owner", "the directors", "my boss"
Owner is someone else in 65% of the 80 calls where it is determinableRoughly 2 to 1 toward marketing.

Managers attend. Owners decide. Write to the owner, name the manager.

Both tests point the same way: marketing-side people are who turn up. But turning up is not the same as deciding, and I originally wrote as if it were. The 65% figure is equally consistent with the owner being the approver who did not attend the call. The ICP resolves it, because its target is a business where someone other than the founder runs marketing, which describes who does the work rather than who signs the invoice.

So the VSL is written to the owner and names the marketing person out loud in the qualifier: you own or run a business doing a million a year or more, and somebody, an agency or someone on your team, is supposed to be handling search for you. It then closes by turning to the secondary audience directly, because a third of calls have more than one person on them and this video gets forwarded: if you're the one who actually runs marketing here and this got forwarded to you, it's for you too, probably more than it's for them. One hook, one film day, both audiences addressed without either being softened.

Honest limits. Most calls state neither signal: titles appear in 13% and the owner test resolves on 80 of 220. These are directional, not a census. What makes them usable is that two unrelated methods and the ICP all agree.

The top person

The inheritor with a deadline.

The best prospect in this dataset is not the founder, and not the SEO-savvy marketer. It is the senior marketing or ecommerce lead who inherited a website they did not build, from people who did not know what they were doing, and now has a commercial deadline they cannot move. They are not confused about whether search matters. They are confused about who to trust with it, and they are running a shortlist.

What they look like

  • Head of ecommerce, digital, or marketing. Sometimes a GM. Rarely the founder.
  • A business 12 to 25 years old with real revenue and a brand people already search for by name.
  • A digital team of one to three, none of whom are SEO specialists.
  • A website rebuilt, migrated or re-themed in the last 24 months, or being rebuilt right now.
  • An incumbent agency they have not fired yet.
  • A board, a founder or an MD they have to justify the spend to.

Why they are the best

  • The urgency is real, not manufactured. A migration date, a Black Friday, a launch. Nothing in the ad has to create it.
  • The ROI case writes itself. Heavy branded traffic means the non-branded side is close to untouched, which they describe themselves as upside.
  • No convincing needed on the category. They already believe. They are choosing a supplier.
  • They buy a relationship, not a project. Two of the ten asked for ongoing retainer pricing before anyone offered it.
  • The audit is the differentiator and it is exactly what they are missing internally.

The two purest examples in the set are Mukhair (haircare, 20 years old, mid-migration, hard Black Friday deadline, asked unprompted for BAU pricing) and Bstore (25-year-old Birkenstock retailer, head of SEO performance who is candid about not being an SEO). Dimple Contacts is the same shape with a founder in the chair. If the new funnel converts more of these three, it is working.

CPO · the framework, filled in

Circumstances, Problems, Outcomes.

Jeremy's rule: articulate their Circumstances and Outcomes so they feel read, then present the solution against their true Problems. The gap between what they blame and what is actually wrong is the whole opportunity.

Circumstances

Their story, what they blame

This is the narrative they arrive with. Note that in every case it is something that happened to them.

"I know that approximately 2 years ago they switched over the site, and I suspect that that would have had that impact. In the last year and a half, we have had very little attention put towards SEO, and that's just based on capability and resources. I myself am not an SEO expert, nor is anyone on my team, hence why we're having this call."Bstore
"Before we migrated to this new headless, our SEO reports were like the best."Dermapenworld
"Context for this, when the site was built, this is probably like the 5th agency that have touched this website."Mukhair
"There's also been an overarching decline in traffic for a lot of brands because Google's now capturing brand searches in the AI results. So you don't need to go to the site."Mukhair

The four recurring circumstances, in order of frequency: a migration or rebuild broke something; we have no internal capability; the last agency spent our money without moving the number; everyone's traffic is down because of AI. The fourth one matters most for messaging, because it is the story they use to make the first three feel less like their fault.

Problems

The real block, not what they think

Jeremy: the real problem is almost always different from the one they name. Here it is, and it is the same in nine of the ten calls.

Nobody owns it.

There is no single person accountable for search inside the business, so the decisions get made by whoever is nearest: a brand agency, a theme update, a developer clearing out old products. Nothing compounds because nothing is anyone's job.

The evidence is not subtle. Bstore's homepage H1 had been broken for months and nobody noticed. Brand URLs were never redirected because "we don't carry that anymore, it doesn't really matter". Dermapenworld had an hreflang fix sitting on staging, recommended by an agency they no longer employ. This is not a knowledge problem, it is an ownership problem, and it is why the audit lands so hard.

"I try to get into it as much as I can, but in all actuality, I just don't have the time."Bstore
"That's the damage of what can happen when there's no one holding your hand throughout it and explaining and educating that you don't redirect X, you will lose X because it drives in Y every month."Bstore

The second real problem, and the one that kills deals: they cannot prove it upward.

"All the data, all the metrics look good, but does it really translate to stock leaving my warehouse to consumers? It didn't, didn't at all. I couldn't stand in front of the board of directors and justify how much I'm spending. The board made the decision to actually cut it off."Ultra Nature, on why they fired their last agency
"I don't want metrics reported back that are just for the sake of it to make you feel good about things."Tax Assure

This is the single most under-served problem in the current funnel. The buyer is not only buying rankings. They are buying a defensible answer to the person who controls the budget. Nothing in the VSL currently speaks to that.

Outcomes

Tiny, milestone, grand
LevelWhat they wantIn their words
Tiny
this month
Stop the bleeding on the migration. A to-do list they can hand to a developer without having to think."They seem to be quite a lot of quick wins that we could implement once we've got like a full brief." (Macro Mike)
Milestone
this year
Non-branded revenue. Every one of them is over-indexed on brand terms and knows it."Part of what I'm trying to do is actually combat with unbranded terms. But I lack the expertise." (Bstore) · "We're 93% branded. It's like 7% of the base, nothing but upside." (Mukhair)
Grand
the real one
A channel they own, so they stop being at the mercy of the brands they resell, the platform, or the ad auction."Even if we build authority with one brand, it may or may not serve us in the long term." (Bstore) · "I want to turn things around. I want to get more money out of this." (Ultra Nature)

Per the SOP's weight-loss-clinic example, go one step deeper than the surface outcome. The surface outcome is "more organic traffic". One step deeper is "non-branded revenue I can point at". Two steps deeper, and this is the one that actually moves them, is "a number I can take to the board that is obviously ours, that keeps growing whether or not I keep paying for it."

Conditions

Where they are, not who they are.

The SOP is blunt that demographics are the wrong lens and conditions are the right one. Two heads of ecommerce at $10m businesses are not the same buyer if one is mid-migration and the other is not. These are the conditions that actually predict a deal in this dataset.

Business conditions

  • Mid-migration, or within 12 months of one. The strongest single signal in the data.
  • Traffic that is 80 to 95 percent branded.
  • Reselling brands that have started competing with them directly.
  • An incumbent agency in place, souring, not yet fired.
  • A hard commercial date: Black Friday, a launch, a new market.

Time and resource conditions

  • A digital team of one to three, no SEO specialist.
  • The buyer is doing SEO themselves, badly, in gaps.
  • Often part-time on this business: "I only work for these guys two days a week."
  • Actively hiring for the role they are trying to cover.
  • No content resource. Content is the bottleneck in eight of ten calls.

Emotional conditions

  • Burned by an agency, and specific about how.
  • Braced for a migration they already expect to go badly.
  • Quietly embarrassed about what the audit will find.
  • Relieved when someone finally tells them the truth.
  • Under pressure from a board or founder who thinks marketing is a cost.

Financial conditions

  • Has budget. Does not have justified budget.
  • Spending well on paid already, and feeling the compression.
  • Recently cut an agency and has that money unallocated.
  • Will pay a premium for certainty near a deadline.
  • Thinks in cost-per-outcome, not cost-per-hour, and resents hour-based padding.
Amplifiers

What it feels like, in their words.

The SOP's rule is that you never state a problem flat, you pair it with the emotional hot button. These are the five amplifiers that are actually present in the recordings, so none of them has to be invented.

1 · Burned, and specific about it

Frustration
"I've had 5 changes in the year and a half. Every few months I'm having to start all over with someone new, and every site has its little bits in the background that you kind of have to know. I haven't seen that knowledge share from one person to the next. It's been an uphill climb."Bstore
"They overestimate, which is fair, I came from the agency side so I understand padding. But they really do take the piss. They will try to charge me 20 hours for something that takes hours."Bstore

Note what this is not: it is not "agencies are bad". It is churn and padding, two specific, nameable things. An ad that says "your agency is ripping you off" attracts the wrong person. An ad that says "you have had four account managers in eighteen months and none of them read the last one's notes" is precise enough to be believed.

2 · The deadline they cannot move

Fear
"I found myself in the same position pretty much 2 years in a row, which is upsetting, which is going live way too close to Black Friday for my comfort, but not being able to do anything about it, which is frustrating."Mukhair
"I'm nervous about how much work we've got to do in a very short space of time."Mukhair

The strongest emotional territory in the entire dataset, and the current funnel does not touch it. This person is not afraid of AI search. They are afraid of a specific Tuesday.

3 · Being passed by people who should be behind them

Envy
"Seeing the competitors, they're just going like above and beyond us with SEO. If we can match that, it's free money, money on the table."Macro Mike
"It's funny, they came up exactly when we dropped. It was just like two ships crossing at night. They went up, we went down, and it was quite obvious and in a fairly short time frame, because we were way ahead of them for a while."Dimple Contacts

4 · Everyone has an opinion and none of them are informed

Frustration
"Everyone thinks they know something at all these business lunches and they have people in their ears saying how SEO is dead and all this and that, so they can be sitting there and saying we're advertising on ChatGPT, happy days."Tax Assure
"Because all the problems we had in the past, the business lost the faith in SEO."Dermapenworld

This is the amplifier with the most upside, because it is the one nobody else in the market is speaking to. The buyer's problem is not their own belief. It is that they are surrounded by confident, wrong people, and they do not have the ammunition to shut the conversation down.

5 · Relief at being told the truth

Desire
"So what you're telling me at the end of the day is my existing website's crap and my new one is not much better. I've got both a bag of shit in my right hand and a bag of shit in my left."The Property Inspectors
"I like the idea that you're transparent and you've rubbished my site. One other guy I've met hasn't done that, different approach. I have no issue about having uncomfortable conversations and being told areas of improvement."The Property Inspectors, comparing StudioHawk to a competing agency
"I want to work with nerds of their craft, like people who genuinely nerd out on their subject."Bstore

This is the closest thing to a winning mechanism in the whole dataset, and it is already what the audit does. Bluntness beat politeness head to head against a named competitor. The VSL should promise the uncomfortable version explicitly, because the person who wants it self-selects and the person who does not is not the buyer.

The WHO · in-market or needs convincing

The answer, and it is not close.

The Stadium Pitch says three to four percent are in-market with a burning problem, thirty percent need convincing, and the rest never buy. Jeremy's instruction is to talk to the three to four percent first and only move to the thirty percent once that seam is exhausted. So which one are these calls?

These are in-market buyers, and most of them are on a shortlist when they arrive.

This is not inference. They say so, unprompted, in the first ten minutes of the call.

"As I did my searches, whether part of it was Google, part of it was AI, part of it was just asking around, I just kept seeing your name pop up in most of my searches. So I took a look at your site and some of the content you've been putting up, and I decided to reach out."Bstore
"The way I found you, give you the 5 best. So I've got yourself and that guy."The Property Inspectors, describing a shortlist of five
"The reason I've been reaching out to different agencies to see which one might help is because we've seen a decline in terms of leads in the past one year especially."Les Mills
"We obviously are with an SEO agency at the moment. Obviously we're just kind of seeing if it's the right fit."Dental Boutique
"That's when I've started Googling AI and approached you guys."Ultra Nature

Thirty-six percent of all 246 calls reached Proposal or Pitch stage. That is not a cold-audience number. The seam is real and it is nowhere near exhausted, which per the SOP means going after the needs-convincing thirty percent now would be the wrong move.

But the "needs convincing" audience here is not who you would expect.

In this dataset, the person who needs convincing is almost never the person on the call. It is the person they report to. The buyer is already sold. Their MD, their board or their founder is not, and the buyer has no ammunition.

Dermapenworld put it in one sentence: "I'm the biggest advocate of SEO, always been in the company. Scott understands the importance but I want him to understand even better. The way that you're going to show, it's gonna be eye opening. I'm hoping at least." They had literally brought their MD onto the call to be convinced by someone else.

Ultra Nature is the same story with a worse ending: the board cut the spend because the marketer could not justify it. Tax Assure is the same story pre-emptively: they are worried their directors will hear "SEO is dead" at a business lunch.

So the second audience is not a colder version of the first. It is the same buyer, carrying an internal sceptic. That is a completely different messaging job. You are not persuading the viewer. You are arming them. And it fits exactly what you said about most consumption happening on the back end: the education content does not need to win the click, it needs to survive being forwarded to a managing director.

AudienceWhere it belongsThe job
In-market
3 to 4 percent
Cold ads, the VSL, the audit offerWin the shortlist. They already believe search matters; they are choosing who. Every second spent explaining that AI search is real is a second not spent differentiating.
The internal sceptic
the real "needs convincing"
Confirmation page, the Hammer Them layer, nurture, the two-day eventArm the advocate. Make a piece that survives being forwarded with the line "watch this". Named sources, no hype, no red, a number a CFO respects.
Genuinely cold
the other 30 percent
Not yetDo not build for these until the in-market seam stops producing. The SOP is explicit and the proposal-stage rate says the seam is healthy.

On the risk question you raised: speak to the in-market person. Going after the higher-risk needs-convincing audience first would be the wrong bet on this data, for three reasons. The in-market volume exists and converts. The needs-convincing content is back-end consumption anyway, by your own read. And the SOP's whole argument is that mismatched messaging to the wrong group is the usual cause of a bad show rate, which is a problem worth avoiding rather than creating.

What this changes

Seven things the new funnel should do differently.

The list

Concrete
1 · Stop selling the category
The current bank leans hard on "you are invisible in AI search". That is a needs-convincing message aimed at a buyer who already believes it. For the in-market shortlist buyer it is wasted runway, and worse, it makes StudioHawk sound like the other four agencies on their list, who are all saying it too.
2 · Name the shortlist moment
Nobody in this market is speaking to the person actively comparing three to five agencies this week. That is a wide-open position and the audit is the perfect weapon for it, because it is the one thing a competitor will not do on a first call.
3 · Lead the migration condition
Mid-migration or just-migrated is the strongest predictor of a deal in the data and it appears in none of the 35 reasons on the call bank. "You are about to migrate and nobody has told you what you are going to lose" is a better hook than anything currently written, because the fear is real, specific and dated.
4 · Sell the ownership problem, not the knowledge problem
They do not think they lack knowledge, they know they lack knowledge. What they have not articulated is that nobody owns search inside their business, which is why it keeps breaking. Saying that out loud is the "reads your mind" moment.
5 · Promise the board-ready number
The deepest outcome is a number they can defend upward. Ultra Nature's agency was fired over exactly this. Put it in the offer: you leave with a number your board will accept, and the plan behind it, whether or not you hire us.
6 · Promise the uncomfortable version
Bluntness beat a politer competitor head to head, in the prospect's own words. The VSL should say the audit will be uncomfortable and that most sites fail most of it. That qualifies in the person who wants the truth and qualifies out the person who wants reassurance, which is exactly the filter the $1M+ bar is trying to do less precisely.
7 · Build one asset to be forwarded
Not a lead magnet. A single piece the buyer sends to their MD with "watch this". Named sources, plain chart, no hype. This is the only thing on this page that needs building from scratch, and it is the highest-leverage item in the whole rebuild.
Verification flags

What is not settled.

1. Sampling is now solved. Outcomes are not. All 222 transcripts are in, so the prevalence numbers are no longer a guess. What is still missing is which of these conversations became revenue. The index records the deal stage at the time of the call, not whether it closed, so every comparison on this page is Discovery-versus-Proposal rather than won-versus-lost. Joining this to closed-won in HubSpot is now the single highest-value thing left, and it would turn the AI-search finding above from a pattern into a fact or kill it.

2. No outcome data. The index carries the stage at the time of the call but not whether the deal closed or what it was worth. "Reached Proposal" is a proxy for a good prospect, not proof of one. Joining this to closed-won in HubSpot would turn every claim on this page from a pattern into a finding.

3. The video is not in here. The transcript panel would not populate. If it contains a specific structure for scaling a call funnel that contradicts anything above, the video wins and this should be revised.

4. The set skews Australian ecommerce. Eight of the ten are AU businesses and six are ecommerce. The US topic tests are aimed at a different market, so this persona should be treated as validated for AU and unproven for the US until a US call set exists.

5. 498 recorded calls back to October 2025 were never transcribed. The export README puts it at 62 to 66 US dollars of AssemblyAI, currently blocked by a spend cap with about 30 dollars of headroom. That would roughly triple the dataset. On the evidence here it is the cheapest research StudioHawk could buy.